December 31, 2018
Euroscepticism refers to someone who opposes increasing powers of the European Union. Concessions made by the most Eurosceptic political leaders in the most indebted countries in the eurozone suggest the...
September 30, 2018
The Fed raising interest rates in recent years has made the US dollar more attractive relative to riskier emerging market currencies. Despite overall weakness of developing countries’ currencies, some have...
June 30, 2018
The single currency pressures European Union countries to harmonize legal differences, lower trade barriers within and across countries, and improve mobility for labor and capital. The eurozone did not start...
March 31, 2018
The capital flowing out of China and other developing countries is seeking a safe harbor. We use the capital they export to import their products, but also to inexpensively finance...
December 31, 2017
Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, took a political gambit by calling a snap election in October. This decision appeared to pay off in spades as his ruling coalition won a...
September 30, 2017
The European Central Bank (ECB) could face a thorny problem in the coming quarters. On one hand, German economic performance is robust. On the other hand, economic fundamentals in the...
June 30, 2017
Like the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 Index for American stocks, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EM) is the leading stock market benchmark for less developed countries....
March 31, 2017
Foreign stock markets are very inexpensive. A good indicator of value – particularly for international comparisons – is the Price-to-Cash-Flow (P/CF) ratio. Right now, the P/CF for the S&P 500...
December 31, 2016
President-elect Trump’s protectionist attack on Mexico appears to be more than rhetorical. He blames the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for enabling companies to freely move manufacturing jobs to...
September 30, 2016
In 2015 world Gross Domestic Product (GDP – the estimated value of all goods and services produced during the year) was $74.7 trillion. For a frame of reference, U.S. GDP...
June 30, 2016
Voters in the United Kingdom shocked the world by voting to leave the European Union (E.U.) after 43 years of membership. Exiting the E.U. has profound financial, economic, and political...
March 31, 2016
The financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008 – 2009 were global events. Unlike the American stock market, however, most international stock markets have not yet fully recovered to their...
December 31, 2015
In an earlier less globalized era, American investors could ignore a debt default in Greece (population 11 million). Similarly, European investors could disregard subprime mortgages in the United States. We...
September 30, 2015
In our March 2014 GHPIA Global Markets letter1, we analyzed the sources of slowing economic growth in China, with particular emphasis on the property boom turning bust. China’s economic growth...
June 30, 2015
In recent years I have had the honor of joining a small delegation from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) on several trips to meet European economists, policymakers, bankers...
March 31, 2015
The Greek election on January 25, 2015 brought the extreme left wing Syriza party to power. During the campaign Alex Tsipras – Syriza’s leader and the new Prime Minister –...
December 31, 2014
Foreign markets performed poorly in 2014 and were a drag on our client portfolios (see Figure 1). What patterns can we decipher and is it wise to maintain our allocation...
September 30, 2014
Every four years the U.S. Department of Energy conducts its “Residential Energy Consumption Survey”. The most recent published results are from 2009, but they give us tremendous insight into the...
June 30, 2014
India’s elections in May produced historic political upheaval. The Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP; Indian People’s Party) won an absolute majority in parliament (282 or 52% of the available seats). Its...
March 31, 2014
When China embarked on its gradual transition away from Communism in 1978 its $148 billion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was only 6% of America’s $8.2 trillion economy. After 35 years...
