How Overbuilt is China?
September 30, 2015
In our March 2014 GHPIA Global Markets letter1, we analyzed the sources of slowing economic growth in China, with particular emphasis on the property boom turning bust. China’s economic growth...
Author: Brian Friedman
Structural Reform and the Future of Europe
June 30, 2015
In recent years I have had the honor of joining a small delegation from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) on several trips to meet European economists, policymakers, bankers...
Thank You Steve Levey!
March 31, 2015
Steve Officially Retired from GHPIA on December 31, 2014 We wish Steve a long and happy retirement and we are sad to see him go. Along with Bob Hochstadt and...
Structural Reform and Institutional Convergence in Europe
March 31, 2015
The Greek election on January 25, 2015 brought the extreme left wing Syriza party to power. During the campaign Alex Tsipras – Syriza’s leader and the new Prime Minister –...
Is International Diversification Still Worthwhile?
December 31, 2014
Foreign markets performed poorly in 2014 and were a drag on our client portfolios (see Figure 1). What patterns can we decipher and is it wise to maintain our allocation...
A World of Opportunity, Despite Weak Markets in 2014
September 30, 2014
Every four years the U.S. Department of Energy conducts its “Residential Energy Consumption Survey”. The most recent published results are from 2009, but they give us tremendous insight into the...
Political Upheaval in India May Reignite the Economy
June 30, 2014
India’s elections in May produced historic political upheaval. The Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP; Indian People’s Party) won an absolute majority in parliament (282 or 52% of the available seats). Its...
The Stock Market is Still Undervalued…Here’s Why
March 31, 2014
In 2008, with mortgage foreclosures mounting and the economy in the depths of the “Great Recession” Earnings per Share (EPS) for the S&P 500 Index tumbled to $58.32, a 31.7%...
China: 35 Years of Rapid Growth…How Many More?
March 31, 2014
When China embarked on its gradual transition away from Communism in 1978 its $148 billion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was only 6% of America’s $8.2 trillion economy. After 35 years...
Three Waves of Global Financial Crisis
December 31, 2013
The financial crisis reverberated around the world in three waves. The initial tsunami was the bank panic and “Great Recession” in the United States from late 2007 through early 2009....
Opportunity and Complexity: America and the Global Ownership Revolution
December 31, 2013
Although stock prices soared in 2013, other indicators of stock market vigor have barely begun to recover. Since the late 1990’s the number of companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges...
Capital and Crisis in Europe
September 30, 2013
For the second year in a row I was honored to accompany a delegation from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) to Europe. We met with economists, bankers, and...
A Long Climb Out of a Deep Hole
September 30, 2013
The employment situation in the United States can be confusing. Unemployment remains stubbornly high, and the percentage of the population participating in the labor force fell from 66.4% in 2006...
Can China Avoid the “Middle Income Curse”?
June 30, 2013
In June, global financial markets briefly shuddered when SHIBOR interest rates spiked to 13%. SHIBOR, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (similar to its namesake LIBOR), is the interest rate Chinese...
Long-Term Drivers of Global Prosperity Remain Intact – Despite Current Pessimism
March 31, 2013
Over the past twenty years the global economy suffered through numerous crises including: the Latin American debt crisis, Mexican devaluation, Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default, Argentinian debt default, the...
