Brexit
June 30, 2016
Voters in the United Kingdom shocked the world by voting to leave the European Union (E.U.) after 43 years of membership. Exiting the E.U. has profound financial, economic, and political...
Category: Global Markets
Global Stock Markets Lag the United States…but are Inexpensive
March 31, 2016
The financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008 – 2009 were global events. Unlike the American stock market, however, most international stock markets have not yet fully recovered to their...
Global Complexity Requires a Strong Analytical Framework
December 31, 2015
In an earlier less globalized era, American investors could ignore a debt default in Greece (population 11 million). Similarly, European investors could disregard subprime mortgages in the United States. We...
How Overbuilt is China?
September 30, 2015
In our March 2014 GHPIA Global Markets letter1, we analyzed the sources of slowing economic growth in China, with particular emphasis on the property boom turning bust. China’s economic growth...
Structural Reform and the Future of Europe
June 30, 2015
In recent years I have had the honor of joining a small delegation from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) on several trips to meet European economists, policymakers, bankers...
Structural Reform and Institutional Convergence in Europe
March 31, 2015
The Greek election on January 25, 2015 brought the extreme left wing Syriza party to power. During the campaign Alex Tsipras – Syriza’s leader and the new Prime Minister –...
Is International Diversification Still Worthwhile?
December 31, 2014
Foreign markets performed poorly in 2014 and were a drag on our client portfolios (see Figure 1). What patterns can we decipher and is it wise to maintain our allocation...
A World of Opportunity, Despite Weak Markets in 2014
September 30, 2014
Every four years the U.S. Department of Energy conducts its “Residential Energy Consumption Survey”. The most recent published results are from 2009, but they give us tremendous insight into the...
Political Upheaval in India May Reignite the Economy
June 30, 2014
India’s elections in May produced historic political upheaval. The Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP; Indian People’s Party) won an absolute majority in parliament (282 or 52% of the available seats). Its...
China: 35 Years of Rapid Growth…How Many More?
March 31, 2014
When China embarked on its gradual transition away from Communism in 1978 its $148 billion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was only 6% of America’s $8.2 trillion economy. After 35 years...
Three Waves of Global Financial Crisis
December 31, 2013
The financial crisis reverberated around the world in three waves. The initial tsunami was the bank panic and “Great Recession” in the United States from late 2007 through early 2009....
Capital and Crisis in Europe
September 30, 2013
For the second year in a row I was honored to accompany a delegation from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) to Europe. We met with economists, bankers, and...
Can China Avoid the “Middle Income Curse”?
June 30, 2013
In June, global financial markets briefly shuddered when SHIBOR interest rates spiked to 13%. SHIBOR, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (similar to its namesake LIBOR), is the interest rate Chinese...
Long-Term Drivers of Global Prosperity Remain Intact – Despite Current Pessimism
March 31, 2013
Over the past twenty years the global economy suffered through numerous crises including: the Latin American debt crisis, Mexican devaluation, Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default, Argentinian debt default, the...
