Economic Outlook Forum Summary - GHPIA
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Economic Outlook Forum Summary

Investment by Carin Wagner , CFP®, Senior Vice President of Wealth Management
July 13, 2023

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The theme of GHP Investment Advisors’ 2023 Economic Outlook Forum on May 10th was “Short-term Pitfalls, Long-term Prosperity”.  The advisors at GHPIA discussed the impact inflation is having on capital markets, key themes in equity and fixed income markets and U.S. government debt.  Below is a detailed summary of each topic. 

Inflation – Beyond the Peak: Examining Inflation’s Trajectory and Implications

Chart- Year over Year Percent Change in Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 1948-2023

Inflation Causes – Demand Side
Chart- Household Excess Savings January 2018 - April 2023
Inflation Causes – Supply Side
Chart- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index 2005-2023
Chart- Labor Force Participation Rate 2005-2023
Disinflationary Process Has Begun 

Chart- Consumer Price Index January 2021- May 2023

U.S. Equities – Earnings Are Falling, The Sky is Not

S&P 500 Earnings Recession

Chart- S&P 500 Earnings Per Share 1Q1993- 1Q2023

Stocks are Not Overvalued

Chart- Asset Class Price to Earnings Ratio

Fixed Income – Are Bonds Back?

Real Losses Experienced in Bond Funds
Chart- Long Duration Funds - 2022 Total Returns
Finally, Some Yield in Bonds
Chart- U.S. 2 Year Treasury Yield from 1976- 2023
Perspective: Stocks Still Outperform Bonds Over Time

Chart- Average Annual Returns: Russell 3000 vs 10 Year Treasury

U.S. Federal Debt

Debt Ceiling was Increased
Now What?

Chart- U.S. Surplus/ Deficit from 2000-2022
Chart- U.S. Federal Debt: Federal Debt Held by the Public vs Intergovernmental Debt from 1970-2022


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