Do Emerging Markets Emerge?
September 30, 2019
Despite extended periods of rapid economic growth that can excite investors, history shows that shockingly few countries “emerge” into wealthy, developed economies.
Category: GHPIA Newsletters
The Mighty Consumer to the Rescue
September 30, 2019
What is often lost within the din of negative economic news, the daily Twitter provocations, and stock market volatility is a vibrant U.S. consumer spending backdrop, which could be the...
Germany’s Fiscal Austerity: An Impediment to Economic Growth
June 30, 2019
Although the eurozone has enjoyed continuously declining unemployment in recent years, both economic growth and inflation remain stubbornly low. With negative interest rates over the last five years and a...
Are IPOs Partying Like It’s 1999?
June 30, 2019
With innovative companies like Uber, Lyft, Pinterest, Airbnb, Zoom, and Beyond Meat going public in recent months, it feels like 1999 all over again. Except this time is different. Investors...
Slowing Population Growth as an Economic Problem
March 31, 2019
I recently attended the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) 35th Annual Economic Policy Conference in Washington, DC. The conference touched on thought-provoking topics, such as the current geopolitical outlook,...
A Tale of Two Housing Markets: Home Affordability vs. Accessibility
December 31, 2018
Home ownership is part of the American dream, but recent headlines suggest achieving this dream is becoming more expensive. Following the Financial Crisis of 2008, housing affordability reached a record...
The Bear Necessities
September 30, 2018
This August the S&P 500 Index set a record for the longest uninterrupted bull market rally at 9.5 years and counting. The extraordinary rally dates all the way back to...
Rising Interest Rates: A Double-Edged Sword
June 30, 2018
After anticipating rising interest rates for years, investors’ expectations are finally coming to fruition. In the summer of 2016, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 1.5%, as expectations of...
Stock Market Volatility – Is it Really That Bad?
March 31, 2018
Stock market downturns can be worrisome, especially when they are abrupt or sharp. Last year was a unique year leaving investors accustomed to a calm, smooth stock market. The S&P...
A New Technology Bubble…Or Not
December 31, 2017
The S&P 500 Index is up over 350% from the stock market bottom of March 9th, 2009. Over this same period, the technology-dominated Nasdaq Index increased by more than 500%....
Earnings Growth: The Unsung Hero Behind the Market Rally
September 30, 2017
Alarming headlines warn readers of an overvalued stock market, saying stock prices rose too much, too fast. For 2017 through the end of September, the S&P 500 index appreciated 14.2%....
The Big Short Part 2 Not Coming to the Box Office Anytime Soon
June 30, 2017
The Big Short by Michael L. Lewis is based on the true story of four outsiders who took advantage of what the big banks, rating agencies and government refused to...
Goldilocks and the Three Banks
March 30, 2017
Once upon a time, an entrepreneurial little girl named Goldilocks started three banks. Raising $1 billion from a stock offering to investors, Goldilocks established Too Cold Bank, Too Hot Bank...
Slow and Steady Wins the Race
December 31, 2016
Over 2,500 years ago, Aesop’s fable “The Tortoise and the Hare” delivered this simple moral espousing the benefits of steady perseverance. Over the last 90 days, numerous examples taken from...
A Long Climb Out of a Deep Hole: Part II
September 30, 2016
(For Part I, See our 2013:Q3 Newsletter at www.ghpia.com) In the early stages of the financial crisis the Federal Reserve reacted slowly. The first signs of distress in mortgage bonds...
A Balanced Diet
June 30, 2016
As children we were taught to use the Food Guide Pyramid to assist with making daily food choices. Eating a variety of food groups while adhering to the appropriate serving...
Presidential Political Economy
March 31, 2016
Voter anger and economic dissatisfaction are upending this year’s Presidential primaries. In addition to the traditional partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans or Liberals vs. Conservatives, perhaps an even more...
The Full Field of View – Our Annual Financial Statement Update
December 31, 2015
You may have recently visited your doctor’s office because you had a sore throat. Before they took a throat culture, it is likely they first checked your height, weight, blood...
The Almighty Dollar…and Yuan?
September 30, 2015
One of the major causes of stock market volatility in the third quarter was concern about economic problems in China spilling over into other emerging markets and the broader global...
College Tuition and Loans: A Crisis in the Making?
June 30, 2015
“You can’t place a value on education. Knowledge is food for the soul.” – Plato Judging by the rising costs of college over the last forty years it appears Americans...