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Category: GHP Global Markets

Germany’s Fiscal Austerity: An Impediment to Economic Growth

June 30, 2019

Although the eurozone has enjoyed continuously declining unemployment in recent years, both economic growth and inflation remain stubbornly low. With negative interest rates over the last five years and a...


Another Look at China – The Social Credit System

March 31, 2019

In the United States, personal credit scores and corporate credit ratings establish trust that is easy to take for granted. Individuals trust that if they pay their credit card bills...


Euroscepticism Offering Deep Discounts

December 31, 2018

Stock market returns in the eurozone as measured by the MSCI EMU1 index fell 19% in 2018, pulling back on the 26% gain in 2017. Primary drivers for the lagging...


U.S. Economic Strength Pressures Emerging Markets

September 30, 2018

Historically‐low unemployment, growing wages, and other positive economic signals led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in recent years. This prevents the United States economy from accelerating too rapidly....


The Euro Will Survive (and Thrive)

June 30, 2018

For the fifth time since 2012, I was invited to participate with a select group of European and American economists at a symposium hosted by the National Association of Business...


The Law Deficit

March 31, 2018

In 1990 the Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Lucas wrote a paper entitled “Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?”. Lucas noted that investment returns are lower in...


Japan – Improving Trends in the Land of the Rising Sun

December 31, 2017

Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, took a political gambit by calling a snap election in October. This decision appeared to pay off in spades as his ruling coalition won a...


Economic Strength in Germany Implies Rising Interest Rates for Us

September 30, 2017

The European Central Bank (ECB) could face a thorny problem in the coming quarters. On one hand, German economic performance is robust. On the other hand, economic fundamentals in the...


Is MSCI Leading the World Astray?

June 30, 2017

Like the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 Index for American stocks, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EM) is the leading stock market benchmark for less developed countries....


Foreign Stocks: From Dogs to Darlings?

March 31, 2017

Foreign stock markets are very inexpensive. A good indicator of value – particularly for international comparisons – is the Price-to-Cash-Flow (P/CF) ratio. Right now, the P/CF for the S&P 500...


Our Economic Relationship with Mexico

December 31, 2016

President-elect Trump’s protectionist attack on Mexico appears to be more than rhetorical. He blames the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for enabling companies to freely move manufacturing jobs to...


Developing Country Chaos Climaxing

September 30, 2016

In 2015 world Gross Domestic Product (GDP – the estimated value of all goods and services produced during the year) was $74.7 trillion. For a frame of reference, U.S. GDP...



June 30, 2016

Voters in the United Kingdom shocked the world by voting to leave the European Union (E.U.) after 43 years of membership. Exiting the E.U. has profound financial, economic, and political...


Global Stock Markets Lag the United States…but are Inexpensive

March 31, 2016

The financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008 – 2009 were global events. Unlike the American stock market, however, most international stock markets have not yet fully recovered to their...


Global Complexity Requires a Strong Analytical Framework

December 31, 2015

In an earlier less globalized era, American investors could ignore a debt default in Greece (population 11 million). Similarly, European investors could disregard subprime mortgages in the United States. We...


How Overbuilt is China?

September 30, 2015

In our March 2014 GHPIA Global Markets letter1, we analyzed the sources of slowing economic growth in China, with particular emphasis on the property boom turning bust. China’s economic growth...


Structural Reform and the Future of Europe

June 30, 2015

In recent years I have had the honor of joining a small delegation from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) on several trips to meet European economists, policymakers, bankers...


Structural Reform and Institutional Convergence in Europe

March 31, 2015

The Greek election on January 25, 2015 brought the extreme left wing Syriza party to power. During the campaign Alex Tsipras – Syriza’s leader and the new Prime Minister –...


Is International Diversification Still Worthwhile?

December 31, 2014

Foreign markets performed poorly in 2014 and were a drag on our client portfolios (see Figure 1). What patterns can we decipher and is it wise to maintain our allocation...


A World of Opportunity, Despite Weak Markets in 2014

September 30, 2014

Every four years the U.S. Department of Energy conducts its “Residential Energy Consumption Survey”. The most recent published results are from 2009, but they give us tremendous insight into the...


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